Saturday, May 12, 2007
Record values - going down?
I had an interesting call from a listener to my radio show last week. Not only is he a listener, but a friend and fellow collector. He said "Brian, what have you heard about record values going down with the music of the 50's and early 60's?" I told him I hadn't really heard that, but that I knew that "Northern Soul" was hot and has been for several years, and that many dealers mention that it sells better than anything else they have. It is especially true for European and Japanese buyers where in many cases the exchange rate is good vs. US dollars. He said" Many of the sellers I deal with are actually LOWERING their prices - and Brian, the 800 dollar Little Richard record I have didn't go up in value from last year's price to the new book price." That was quite a series of statements, with the possibility of quite a few discussions that I could have with him, but not while I was doing my radio show! And by the way, I want to know your dealers that are lowering their prices!
Let's take high end seller John Tefteller. I get his monthly auctions sent to my home, and the asking prices don't appear to have gone down any. I suppose I would need to ask him if they all were sold and the realized prices, to get the most accurate picture. However, he has increased his Ebay presence by selling more and more records on the famous auction site that he all but trashed a few years ago with his bottom feeder remarks. He does have a series of 78's up for auction at the moment with a reasonable opening bid of 9.99. Go figure.
The trends on Ebay at the moment do make it appear like some of the mid value records that run between 50 and 100 bucks, are showing starting bids around 30.00 with minimal bidders. Conditions and desirability vary, but in the last few months, I have noticed this. The flip side is Chuck Higgins 78's at 200.00 and outrageous asking prices for some other common records, and naturally they don't sell.
One very interesting by-product of Ebay and other auction sites, is that some records thought to be fairly scarce, turn up so often that it's obvious they sold more than collectors and price guide publishers realized. Subsequently, the price paid for those records is declining as I type. A clairification here is that maybe they didn't sell more, but there were more pressed than originally thought.
LP's are another interesting story. The bottom fell out on LP's several years ago, at least according to Ebay sales results, and it is tough to get anywhere near book value for 90 per cent of them. That trend continues today. A great example is when I bought a stereo copy of the Fireflies on Taurus for about 20 bucks. The book value is over 200, but I doubt you find many buyers willing to spend half that.
So what about that Little Richard record that didn't go up in value? Well, not all records do. There are plateau's even with high end mint records. But, another increase could be right around the corner. Or are the records pricing themselves so high that just the ultra wealthy will be able to afford them? As you mature in the record collecting hobby, you are looking for some of the rarer records because you already have some of the common records in your specific interests. or you might be branching out into other areas, and find you have another set of hard to find records that need to be purchased. Time to re-finance the house!
There will always be high end sellers and there is always the auction sites like Ebay. Then there all things in-between. I have several sources for records and continue to look for more. I never have an issue with paying a reasonable price, but there in lies the rub. What is reasonable? That could be discussed until the cows come home. For me, I take many things into account. The condition, the pressing, how bad I want it, and what I think it's worth based on what I know and think I know, along with the trends I currently see. Then I set a price and see if i can buy one for that amount.
The rest of this month, I am out searching some additional details on the Rockin Rebels. I have an upcoming project and am trying to fill in a few gaps.
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Hi Brian -
Tefteller probably spends more money on records in a month than I make in a whole year. Everyone has their own budget and extremes to which they'd be willing to spend. Also, established Collectors have found their niche to which they'll go all out for. You have your extremes as I have mine.
Record prices are like stock prices. There were never any kind of guarantees that they'd continually rise with every passing year, no matter how much we'd like to believe it. Prices go strictly according to supply and demand, just like everything else. Just like with that $800.00 Little Richard disc, price guides only depict what the record has sold for in the recent past, they don't PREdict what they WILL sell for now or in the future. That's entirely up to the current demand. In order to get that price, you have to find a buyer willing to pay it.
Record prices should only be evaluated as to what YOU would be willing to spend should you decide to replace it. The price guides to me are only good for compiling discographies and to determine the relative scarcity of the item, not it's actual value. Condition is primary when determining those prices. As you probably have seen some common items listed for high prices, records that sold millions, finding one in top condition would be more difficult than finding a scarcer item (a record that didn't sell) in top condition, as the records that sold well were probably played to death leaving fewer prime examples left for the Collector. Lower grades are likely a dime a dozen, but it is the primary grades that demand higher end pricing.
Ebay is the best area to find the actual current value of just about anything. It's the Wall Street of the Internet. Like it or not, that's the way it is. Dealers can have their (listed) $500.00 records sitting on the shelves for years. Until someone is willing to pay that price, it's worth it only to the dealer.
I've gone to extremes to acquire certain items, just as I'm sure you have. Just the same, I'm sure you've run across great deals along the way, spending far less than you thought you would have to to fill in a gap, just as I have. It's all part of the Collecting experience. Enjoy it!
You shouldn't put a price on fun.
:-)
Fred C.
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Tefteller probably spends more money on records in a month than I make in a whole year. Everyone has their own budget and extremes to which they'd be willing to spend. Also, established Collectors have found their niche to which they'll go all out for. You have your extremes as I have mine.
Record prices are like stock prices. There were never any kind of guarantees that they'd continually rise with every passing year, no matter how much we'd like to believe it. Prices go strictly according to supply and demand, just like everything else. Just like with that $800.00 Little Richard disc, price guides only depict what the record has sold for in the recent past, they don't PREdict what they WILL sell for now or in the future. That's entirely up to the current demand. In order to get that price, you have to find a buyer willing to pay it.
Record prices should only be evaluated as to what YOU would be willing to spend should you decide to replace it. The price guides to me are only good for compiling discographies and to determine the relative scarcity of the item, not it's actual value. Condition is primary when determining those prices. As you probably have seen some common items listed for high prices, records that sold millions, finding one in top condition would be more difficult than finding a scarcer item (a record that didn't sell) in top condition, as the records that sold well were probably played to death leaving fewer prime examples left for the Collector. Lower grades are likely a dime a dozen, but it is the primary grades that demand higher end pricing.
Ebay is the best area to find the actual current value of just about anything. It's the Wall Street of the Internet. Like it or not, that's the way it is. Dealers can have their (listed) $500.00 records sitting on the shelves for years. Until someone is willing to pay that price, it's worth it only to the dealer.
I've gone to extremes to acquire certain items, just as I'm sure you have. Just the same, I'm sure you've run across great deals along the way, spending far less than you thought you would have to to fill in a gap, just as I have. It's all part of the Collecting experience. Enjoy it!
You shouldn't put a price on fun.
:-)
Fred C.
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